Stable; for now.
Posted by Don on Apr 8, 2010
Yesterday’s Bond Auction was surprisingly strong. Investors bid 3.72 times the amount of 10-year notes offered, the highest since 1994. This is a number that indicates the “demand” for the auction, and normally averages 2.87. All this means that demand was stronger than expected (good news, with such a large sale of US Bonds), and that this demand worked to raise prices (lower...
Read MoreStable; long term trend still higher.
Posted by Don on Apr 7, 2010
There are two significant and competing elements in today’s rates, both working against each other. Which one ultimately predominates and drives rates up or down is yet to be seen. You decide. Here’s the facts: The economic issues surrounding Greece have deteriorated overnight. Traders are increasingly concerned that the rescue plan may unravel. This causes “flight to debt of...
Read MoreMostly sideways at this point. Long term trend higher.
Posted by Don on Apr 6, 2010
Yesterday’s increase was significant enough to see a little bit of a pullback overnight. Plus the news is favorable today, such that a significant increase today isn’t anticipated. Overnight, Greece requested to amend the EU agreement on its bailout, citing too severe a set of restrictions, causing social unrest. This caused unrest in the Euro market, and money flowed into US...
Read MoreHere we go… Rates higher.
Posted by Don on Apr 5, 2010
Treasuries are trading significantly higher today — at their highest interest rates in six months. Several factors are pressing this: Expectation that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates, in part because of a Labor Department report last week showing US companies added 162,000 workers in March (compared to a 36,000 loss in February), and an expected report today that will...
Read MoreRates trending sideways
Posted by Don on Apr 2, 2010
Might be a slight tick downward in rates, as Fed next week is expected to explain away, as not indicative, a bigger-than-expected recent Non-farm Payroll report. Technically, 10 yr Treasury is slightly oversold. (i.e., expects momentum toward purchase, which moves prices up, and interest rate (yield) down. (See note #2) Note: Explanation of the use of the term “Technically”. Stocks and bonds...
Read MoreSpending
Posted by Don on Mar 30, 2010
This post, as distinguished from the previous initial, longer post, will be a little more week-in-review like: Even so, it still relates to our spending, and where we go in the large picture, economically. Last year, for almost every single week, the US was selling about $9B of bonds in the marketplace weekly. Last month, over a three day period, we sold something like $130B — a...
Read MoreThe times we’re in.
Posted by Don on Mar 30, 2010
This is long post — much longer than I plan to put here on a general basis. But this will give a good foundation for everything that’s yet to come, as it resides there in the archives. It’s a post about where I think we are generally going to go with rates (and why) — largely because of the times we’re in. Most of the posts after this one should be more on a daily...
Read More
