Rates are stable on news. European news includes a downgrade on Spain’s credit ratings from Fitch Ratings, from AAA, which said the country’s debt burden is likely to weigh on economic growth. The ratings were cut one step to AA+. Domestically, news points to the reality that, although recovering, the economy is still in slow recovery.
Treasury yields are expected to remain low “this year” as inflation numbers are low, and the recovery still fledgling. I would be tempted to say, it’s all “good news” today for the bond market — except somewhere in my mind, it really feels like the “other shoe is about to drop.” –And to drop as soon as we all sit back easy, and stop trying to solve these deep and far reaching problems.
Nonetheless, although the technicals put this in a slightly oversold position (pressure for slightly higher rates) I wouldn’t lock today, unless news breaks. Current technical range as of this morning was 3.43%, with support at 3.31% and 3.21%; and resistance at 3.41% and 3.51%. As of this posting, rates are 3.30% — at the first support level.
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